When this blog was restarted and re-envisioned, it was to take on a Renaissance man kind of feel with no limits on topics or debates. Well I believe in breaching one of the first non-futbol related topics in the form of World War III, and how cheery it is!!!
Whether or not people believe it, full-scale war will break out again on this Earth and as many scholars and intellegencia have pin-pointed, it will be in the Middle East. This time there will be the penultimate battle of “good vs. evil” as each side proclaims supremacy and good will in the form of Israel vs. its Arab neighbors. The Middle East has always been a tense battleground, but tremendous heightened apprehension since the creation of the State of Israel in 1948 following World War II. In just over sixty years, the small nation has been involved in numerous military conflicts against its neighbors including the Arab-Israeli War in 1948 (vs. Egypt, Syria, Transjordan, Lebanon, and Iraq) and the Six-Day War (in 1967 vs. Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and Iraq). The nation long supported by the United States is seen as a land of infidels and outsiders in the Middle East and contentious point of controversy at times whether or not its neighbors and regional neighbors even believe in its right to exist. What has not helped the situation is the extravagant support the United States lends to Israel, primarily in the form of helping them build up arguably the most dominant military in the region. Israel is the preeminent military power in the region, but not when possibly up against the majority of countries surrounding it. What would happen if Israel’s existence was on the line in a military fight where they are outnumbered and outgunned? Who would come to their aid and would it start a global chess game of countries supporting the Arab region vs. the State of Israel?
Disturbingly enough this situation may come to a head sooner than anyone believed or expected. The impetus for this escalation of the situation is the unknown variable of Iran’s nuclear program. For years Iran has threatened and promised to build up a nuclear power source, proclaiming it solely for energy though few in the global audience are convinced that is truly the case. Iran’s political leader, Ahmadinejad, is an opposition leader to Israel’s existence and a devout advocate that the Holocaust never happened. Needless to say he is not very popular in Jerusalem and is often seen as the leading anti-Zionist figure in the world. Ahmadinejad has overseen the growth of the Iranian nuclear program to tremendous heights that could see their enrichment of uranium equal levels paramount to a nuclear weapon. Progress has been slow but is still being made.
The key to the amount of progress being made is that their is a window of time where Israel could strike the Iranian nuclear program and severely damage it. This is of course a certain possibility due to the known truth that if Iran develops nuclear weaponry, their first target would arguably be the Zionist entity. According to a TIME Magazine article written by Tony Karon on March 5, 2012, Iran’s enrichment and technology is accelerating at a pace to where if Israel does not strike by late Summer, the worst they could derail Iran’s nuclear process is by a year. The window is closing for Israel to strike at these supposed “threat” targets but the question of when and what will be done is one that no one but Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can answer.
What is for sure though is the United States, and primarily President Obama, will be put in a tight spot. Obama has long advocated for sanctions and diplomacy over military action on this matter but Netanyahu may force his hand by taking action. The President will be left with a conundrum as to whether to support a primary ally or be a cautious observer in a region teeming with anti-American sentiment already. Obama does have some leverage on his side, as TIME reporter Tony Karon also reported that Israel cannot destroy Iranian nuclear plants on their own but would need American air support and aid in the event of an attack. What Obama does not have on his side is time. Netanyahu knows his window to strike is closing fast and his preeminent goal is the preservation of Israel, and that means eliminating threats such as an Iranian nuclear weapon. Netanyahu also knows he can put added pressure on Obama by attacking and pleading for support in an election year where Obama will be under even closer scrutiny by the media and rivals. It is unclear how Obama would react to an Israeli attack on Iran but it can be stated for sure that he will have to make an authoritative decision on that matter that could lead to full U.S. involvement on the issue or an abandonment of one of our closest allies.
The summer of 2012 is going to be a heated one, with two countries standing on the edge of the abyss of war. On one side is Iran, refusing to abandon their nuclear ambitions and declaring the necessity of nuclear power, whether peaceful or malicious, for the prosperity of their country. On the other side is Israel, a country possibly on the verge of fighting for its own existence once again in a region full of wary eyes and vengeful stares that may be willing and able to follow the lead of a vigilant and charismatic leader like Ahmadinejad. Stuck in the middle is a world power with a leader who has handled foreign policy admirably but has yet to face the possibility of full scale war concerning a close ally, and the possibility of World War III essentially. No one knows how this situation will settle out, or if there will even be a situation. All that is known for sure is that right now the Middle East is sitting on a ticking time bomb of political ideologies and vibrant emotions that could spill out into a regional conflict that drags the members of the global community into it.